Femicide, intimate partner femicide, and non-intimate partner femicide in South Africa: An analysis of 3 national surveys, 1999–2017

In most countries, reliable national statistics on femicide, intimate partner femicide (IPF), and non-intimate partner femicide (NIPF) are not available. Surveys are required to collect robust data on this most extreme consequence of intimate partner violence (IPV). We analysed 3 national surveys to compare femicide, IPF, and NIPF from 1999 to 2017 using age-standardised rates (ASRs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs).We conducted 3 national mortuary-based retrospective surveys using weighted cluster designs from proportionate random samples of medicolegal laboratories. We included females 14 years and older who were identified as having been murdered in South Africa in 1999 (n = 3,793), 2009 (n = 2,363), and 2017 (n = 2,407). Further information on the murdered cases were collected from crime dockets during interviews with police investigating officers. Our findings show that South Africa had an IPF rate of 4.9/100,000 female population in 2017. All forms of femicide among women 14 years and older declined from 1999 to 2017. For IPF, the ASR was 9.5/100,000 in 1999. Between 1999 and 2009, the decline for NIPF was greater than for IPF (IRR for NIPF 0.47 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.53) compared to IRR for IPF 0.69 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.77). Rates declined from 2009 to 2017 and did not differ by femicide type. The decline in IPF was initially larger for women aged 14 to 29, and after 2009, it was more pronounced for those aged 30 to 44 years. Study limitations include missing data from the police and having to use imputation to account for missing perpetrator data.In this study, we observed a reduction in femicide overall and different patterns of change in IPF compared to NIPF. The explanation for the reductions may be due to social and policy interventions aimed at reducing IPV overall, coupled with increased social and economic stability. Our study shows that gender-based violence is preventable even in high-prevalence settings, and evidence-based prevention efforts must be intensified globally. We also show the value of dedicated surveys in the absence of functional information systems

在大多数国家，关于谋杀、亲密伴侣谋杀（IPF）以及非亲密伴侣谋杀（NIPF）的可靠国家统计数据尚不可得。为收集亲密伴侣暴力（IPV）这一极端后果的稳健数据，需进行调查研究。本研究分析了1999年至2017年间的3项国家调查，以比较谋杀、IPF和NIPF，并采用年龄标准化率（ASRs）和发病率比（IRRs）进行对比。我们通过使用加权聚类设计，从成比例随机抽取的法医实验室样本中，开展了3项基于国家殡仪馆的回顾性调查。我们纳入了1999年（n = 3,793）、2009年（n = 2,363）和2017年（n = 2,407）被认定为在南非被谋杀的14岁及以上女性。进一步的信息通过警方调查官的访谈从犯罪档案中收集。我们的研究结果表明，2017年南非的IPF发病率为每10万女性4.9例。14岁及以上的女性中所有形式的谋杀率从1999年至2017年均有下降。对于IPF，1999年的ASR为每10万9.5例。在1999年至2009年间，NIPF的下降幅度大于IPF（NIPF的发病率比（IRR）为0.47（95%置信区间（CI）为0.42至0.53），而IPF的IRR为0.69（95% CI为0.63至0.77）。从2009年到2017年，发病率和谋杀类型无关。IPF的下降在最初对14至29岁的女性更大，而自2009年后，对30至44岁的女性更为显著。本研究的局限性包括来自警方的数据缺失，以及必须使用插补法来处理缺失的加害者数据。在本研究中，我们观察到谋杀整体呈下降趋势，而与NIPF相比，IPF的变化模式有所不同。这种减少可能归因于旨在减少整体亲密伴侣暴力的社会和政策干预措施，以及社会和经济稳定性的提高。我们的研究显示，即使在高发病率的环境中，基于性别的暴力也是可以预防的，全球范围内必须加强基于证据的预防工作。我们还展示了在没有功能信息系统的背景下，专门调查的价值。