Using probit models of downturn risk to calibrate GDP Fan charts for New Zealand

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development2026-04-11 收录

下载链接：

https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/using-probit-models-of-downturn-risk-to-calibrate-gdp-fan-charts-for-new-zealand_aa823471-en.html

下载链接

链接失效反馈

官方服务：

资源简介：

Macroeconomic forecasters typically forecast fewer recessions than the number experienced, which means economic growth tends to be over-predicted on average. Consequently, forecast errors are not normally distributed, making it difficult to convey the uncertainty and risks based on the historical forecast track record. To characterise this risk,...