Data from: Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

Climate change - reflected in significant environmental changes such as
warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean
conditions - is expected to impact marine organisms and associated
fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on,
and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the
Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche
modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change
scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf
for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and
non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of
national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling
outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial
species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local
extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Arabian Gulf, off
the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While
the projected patterns provided useful indicators of climate change
impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in
habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results
suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the
western side of the Arabian Gulf, with projections differing only slightly
between models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more
than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in
catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of
Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss
limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the
implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries
management policies in the region.