Data from: Climate change could disrupt migratory patterns for an Arctic seabird population

Climate change is altering the marine environment at a global scale and
these changes could affect the distribution and migration patterns of
marine species throughout their annual cycle. Arctic regions are already
experiencing some of the most dramatic changes in marine climate and there
is a need for predictive models to understand how these changes could
alter the spatio-temporal distributions of Arctic marine species. We used
a species distribution model to predict potential future changes in the
non-breeding distribution of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) from a
colony in Hudson Bay, Canada, from 2021 to 2100 using three Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios: low (SSP1-2.6),
intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP5-8.5) emissions. Under the
intermediate and high emissions scenarios, suitable habitat within Hudson
Bay would become available year-round during the next century. This could
lead to a portion of this migratory population becoming year-round
residents within the next 80 years. We predicted a significant northward
shift in the winter range, such that little or no habitat would be
available below 55ºN by 2100. This shift would have significant
implications for the murre harvest in Canada because the winter
distribution would no longer include coastal Newfoundland where most
harvesting occurs, particularly if murres from other colonies show a
similar shift in distribution. Although there were projected changes in
seasonal distributions under all three climate scenarios, dramatic
re-distribution of non-breeding habitat could be avoided with policies
that limit future emissions.