Distinguishing distribution dynamics from temporary emigration using dynamic occupancy models

1. Dynamic occupancy models are popular for estimating dynamic distribution rates (colonization and extinction) from repeated presence/absence surveys of unmarked animals. This approach assumes closure among repeated samples within primary periods, allowing estimation of dynamic rates between these periods. However, the impact of temporary emigration (reversible changes in sampling availability) on dynamic rate estimates, has not been tested.

2. Using simulated data, we investigated the degree to which temporary emigration could mislead researchers interested in quantifying dynamics. We then compared results from three avian point count datasets to evaluate the likelihood that temporary emigration confounds estimates of dynamics for 19 species under a popular sampling protocol.

3. Simulated experiments indicated that when secondary periods were open to temporary emigration, presence of dynamics was correctly identified ≥ 95.1% of the time, and dynamic rate estimates were accurate....