Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonize new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18 years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards the region that is warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km yr-1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species’ ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species’ thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as a metric for dis..., Centroid shifts
We examined range shifts in 88 species of North American butterfly species by examining changes in abundances across 146 fixed transects between the years 2000 – 2017 (Supplementary Figure 1). Transect monitoring was conducted by citizen scientists that took part in the Ohio Lepidopterists Monitoring Program within a strict range of environmental conditions on a weekly basis (https://www.ohiolepidopterists.org/). We only examined range shifts in species geographic ranges that had over 80 observations across the 18-year test period, and species that had range shift data for at least a 10-year period.
We used abundance-weighted methods to assess each species’ range shifts. We calculated the abundance-weighted geographic centroid of each species each year between 2000 and 2017 within the Ohio Lepidoptera monitoring scheme to create centroid shift vectors for each species. To account for potential sampling error, we bootstrapped species occurrence records by resampling 80% o..., , # Data from: Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.0000000bg](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.0000000bg)

We used citizen science collected data of butterfly occurrence records from the Ohio Lepidopterists Monitoring Program between 2000 - 2017. We estimated species range shifts within Ohio by estimating species annual mean centroids within Ohio and calculating range shift vectors (find detailed methods in the published manuscript). 

## Description of the data and file structure

The data file includes columns with the following information: 

species_names: scientific names of each species

Total.butterfleis.counted: total number of butterflies included in range shift analysis for each species

First.year: year of first observation 

Last.year: year of last observation

year.span: number of years range shift was calculated for

sig.shift: whether the range sh...