LuccME/INLAND land-use scenarios for Brazil 2050

Land use and land cover change models and scenarios are essential to understand the interconnections between global and regional factors influencing land use and demand changes, especially if we consider population growth and food demand projections in 2050.

Understanding the future of changes in land use and land cover in Brazil is fundamental for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. Thus, the new spatially explicit regional scenarios were developed for Brazil by 2050. Those scenarios are aligned with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). Aim to detail global models regionally and can be used both regionally to support decision-making and enrich the overall analysis.

For the development of these new scenarios, the LuccME spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and the INLAND surface model were combined to incorporate climatic variables in water deficit and biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors for Brazil. The scenarios were developed for land use and land cover classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, agriculture, mosaic of occupations, and forestry.

The dataset comes in NetCDF format and includes the following products:

LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_100km2_2000.nc: Percentage of land use and land cover for the year 2000 (Observed data).

LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_100km2_2010.nc: Percentage of land use and land cover for the year 2010 (Observed data).

LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_100km2_2012.nc: Percentage of land use and land cover for the year 2012 (Observed data).

LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_100km2_2014.nc: Percentage of land use and land cover for the year 2014 (Observed data).

LUCCMEBR_SSP1_RCP19_land_cover_type_100km2_2015_2050.nc: Percentage of land use and land cover for the period 2015-2050 (Simulated data). This scenario considers the combination of SSP1 and RCP1.9.

LUCCMEBR_SSP2_RCP45_land_cover_type_100km2_2015_2050.nc: Percentage of land use and land cover for the period 2015-2050 (Simulated data). This scenario considers the combination of SSP2 and RCP4.5.

LUCCMEBR_SSP3_RCP70_land_cover_type_100km2_2015_2050.nc: Percentage of land use and land cover for the period 2015-2050 (Simulated data). This scenario considers the combination of SSP3 and RCP7.0.

Data

Percentage of land use and land cover classes: Forest vegetation (veg), Grassland vegetation (gveg), Planted pasture (pastp), Agriculture (agric), Mosaic of occupation (mosc), Forestry (fores) and Others (others).

Spatial resolution

The scenarios are available in a spatial resolution of 0.083º x 0.083º (~100 km²) and cover the entire Brazilian territory.

Temporal resolution 

Period of observed data: 2000, 2010, 2012 e 2014

Scenario Period: 2015 – 2050 (each five-year)

Coordinate reference system 

Geographic Coordinate System with Datum WGS84 (EPSG4326)

Data format

Data is provided as NetCDF.

Dataset usage 

It is free to use, but please make sure to cite the repository and our paper properly if you use this dataset.

Publication & further information

For additional scenario information, please contact Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra ([e-mail]).

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the project “MSA / BNDES (Environmental Monitoring by Satellite in the Amazon biome)” for financing the development of LuccMEBR.