Assessment of threatened status of China's seed plants under the future climate change

Future climate change is a significant source of the risk of species extinction, posing substantial challenges to the maintaining of global biodiversity and the stability of ecosystems. To mitigate the risk of species extinction and maintain ecosystem stability, prioritizing the protection of threatened species has become a global consensus in biodiversity conservation. The refinement of the threatened species list is foundational for biodiversity protection. Our study based on 10 × 10 km distribution data of approximately 28,450 species of China's seed plants (accounting for about 82.3% of the total number of China's seed species), predicts the future distribution of these species using species distribution models and calculates the change in the area of their future distribution. Consequently, according to the IUCN Red List A3c criteria, the threatened status of seed plants under future climate change was quantitatively determined. Our research therefore updated the threatened status of China's seed plants based on the current list of threatened species and proposed a new list of threatened seed plant species in China. The new list of threatened seed plants based on the assessment of 34,550 species (approximately the total number of China's seed plants based on available data). Under three future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) and three species dispersal scenarios (full dispersal, dispersal of 20 km every decade, and no dispersal), 4,444-11,468 seed plant species are threatened, accounting for 12.9-33.2% of the total number of China's seed plants. among them, there are 1,818-4,091 woody plant species, accounting for 15.2-34.2% of the total number of woody plants. In case of herbaceous plants, there are 2,626-7,376 species, accounting for 11.6-32.7% of the total number of herbaceous plants. Furthermore, there are 2,962-3,915 species with data deficiency, accounting for 8.5-11.3% of the total number of China's seed plants. This study quantitatively assessed the possibility of seed plants being threatened by climate change on the basis of current evaluations, supplementing and updating the current list of threatened species. It will provide important baseline data for China's biodiversity conservation planning.