Posterior predictive checks of the HB model.

We calculated three test statistics: 1) Pearson’s r2 assessing the correlation between the observed data and the replicated data, 2) to assess the ability of the model to capture the mean tendency of the data, and 3) based on a sums-of-squares approach to assess overall model fit including its ability to capture data variability. A value of (for both mean and fit) near 0 or 1 indicates lack of fit; values near 0.5 are acceptable.