Meat Production and Zoonotic Disease Outbreaks in Asia

Is there a link between meat production and infectious disease? Researchers, policymakers, and pundits argue that the growth of demand for meat in Asia can increase the risk of zoonotic diseases, pathogens that originate in animals and can be transmitted to humans. Using original data on zoonotic disease outbreaks in 22 Asian countries between 1996 and 2019, this study examines the impact of beef, chicken, and pork production on zoonotic outbreaks – focusing on all diseases as well as disaggregated subcategories. Because zoonotic disease outbreaks can lead to the culling of farmed animals, data on inorganic chemical fertilizer use are utilized to identify the plausibly exogenous relationship flowing from meat production to outbreaks, in addition to system GMM models reported in the appendix. Results indicate that in these countries, greater levels of meat production may have contributed to a 0.02% – 0.4% rise (for a 1,000-ton increase in output) in zoonotic outbreak incidence. Findings also suggest that this relationship is primarily driven by flus’ potential higher sensitivity, with a 1,000-ton increase in output being associated with a 0.06% – 0.6% rise in flu risk. These results are consistent across numerous sensitivity analyses accounting for modeling, operationalization, and data selection choices.