LOCA2-STAR Ensemble SSP5-8.5 Warm Nights

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 60°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 70°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 75°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 80°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 85°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 90°F This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below. For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future. Geographies This layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds. County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas. HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time Ranges Projected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade. Climate Scenarios Climate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data Export Exporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.气候韧性信息系统（Climate Resilience Information System, CRIS）为气候服务开发者提供数据与工具。本图层包含1950年至2100年以十年为增量的VAR投影数据，覆盖三类共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）。包含的气候变量如下： 1. 年最低气温大于等于60华氏度的天数 2. 年最低气温大于等于70华氏度的天数 3. 年最低气温大于等于75华氏度的天数 4. 年最低气温大于等于80华氏度的天数 5. 年最低气温大于等于85华氏度的天数 6. 年最低气温大于等于90华氏度的天数 本图层采用针对美国本土（连续48州）的LOCA2与STAR-ESDM降尺度气候模型数据，并由CICS-NC下属的美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA）技术支持单元与Esri开展进一步处理，具体细节详见下文。 针对每个时间节点与SSP场景，针对预设地理单元（县、部落区域、HUC-8流域）均可获取最小值、最大值与平均值三类统计量。上述汇总统计量的推导流程可参见《理解CRIS数据》（Understanding CRIS Data）文档。 针对包含16个气候投影结果的加权集成模型，可获取其对应时间与地理单元的组合数据。关于集成模型涵盖的具体模型与加权方法的更多细节，可查阅《CRIS数据准备》（CRIS Data Preparation）文档。 其余气候变量可通过CRIS官网的数据图库（Data Gallery）页面获取，或通过下表查阅。未来还将新增覆盖阿拉斯加、夏威夷及波多黎各的更多地理单元数据。 ## 地理单元说明 本图层为三类地理单元提供投影值：县、部落区域与HUC-8流域。 - 县：基于美国人口普查局TIGER/Line 2022版发布的地理数据。 - 部落区域：基于美国人口普查局2022版发布的《美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民/夏威夷原住民区域数据集》，该数据集包含联邦与州政府认定的统计区域。 - HUC-8流域：基于美国地质调查局（United States Geological Survey, USGS）清洗边界数据集（Washed Boundary Dataset），属于全国水文数据库Plus高分辨率数据集的组成部分。 ## 时间范围 气候阈值投影值（例如≥90华氏度高温日数）的计算覆盖2005年至2100年的逐年数据。此外，还提供1951年至2005年的模型历史模拟结果。模型历史数据与未来投影数据已合并为单一时序序列，并按十年进行平均汇总。 ## 气候情景 气候模型通过模拟温室气体浓度与人类活动的未来情景来预估整体气候变化，这类差异化情景被称为共享社会经济路径（SSPs）。本数据集提供三类SSP场景：2-4.5、3-7.0与5-8.5（注：STAR未提供SSP3-7.0场景数据）。 破折号前的数字代表社会行为情景框架，破折号后的数字代表2100年时与温室气体浓度情景相关的辐射强迫量（单位：瓦每平方米），辐射强迫越高则气候变暖幅度越大。 目前尚无定论哪种情景最贴合未来实际，但SSP 2-4.5目前与《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次缔约方大会（COP-26）达成的国际减排目标相符。基于当前排放趋势，SSP3-7.0或为最可能发生的情景。SSP5-8.5则作为警示场景，展示了若不采取温室气体减排措施将出现的最坏气候结果。 ## 数据导出 本数据集支持导出为Shapefile、地理数据库（geodatabase）、GeoJSON等多种格式。