Using Agent-Based Modeling to Understand and Assess Demographic (In)Equity of Extreme Heat Exposure In Norfolk, VA Due To Lack Of Tree Canopies

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and creating a daily harmful environmental exposure for residents during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade which can help cool the environment, making mature trees with large canopies a simple and effective way to reduce urban heat. In this paper, we use a demographically representative 1 (agent): 1 (person) agent-based model to understand the extent to which within Norfolk, VA different demographics of residents are equitably shaded from extreme heat conditions during a walk on a clear summer day. Then we assess the extent to which the city's Tree Planting Plan will be effective in remediating any existing inequities. Our results show that currently there are inequitable conditions due to heat exposure due to a lack to tree canopies for residents: (1) at different income levels and (2) living in different census tracts. The Tree Planting Program reduces these inequities, however, residents of the city at lower income levels still experience statically significantly more extreme heat exposure due to a lack of tree canopies in summer months than those at higher income levels. The data, source code and figures reflect artifacts that support our findings in this research effort.