Innovative Methodologies for Assessing Radicalization Risk: Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis, United States, 2001-2019

This study examined the geospatial contexts of where terrorism incidents occur, where terrorists plan and prepare for their crimes, and where terrorists reside in the United States. The researchers examined data linked to terrorism-related incidents in the United States from the time of the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001 through 2019. Using these data, the researchers applied innovative analytical methodologies of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations (CACC) to evaluate their utility in assessing risk of terrorism. Risk terrain modeling is a method for identifying situational, place-based risk factors most associated with locations where terrorist incidents are likely to be planned or occur. This method looks at specific aspects of the physical landscape, such as locations of buildings or parking lots. The place-based analysis approach to terrorism investigation represents a shift from the conventional research emphasis on targeting suspicious persons by their demographic or other traits. This approach investigates the importance of location in explanations of crime and terrorism. According to the American Terrorism Study, during this time between 2001 (after 9/11 and 2019) there were 296 terrorism incidents and 617 pre-incident activities occurred where the state was known. In addition, there were 420 known residences tied to terrorism-related incidents in particular states.