IDASA Opinion Survey 1998 - South Africa

Abstract
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The IDASA Opinion Survey was a series of opinion polls conducted prior to the 1999 election. They aimed to provide as complete a picture as possible of South African's views of the political, social and economic developments in the country since 1994. The survey was run by IDASA, Markinor and the SABC, along with the Electoral Institute of South Africa to increase credibility of the results and to utilise the best range of data collection and analysis expertise available.

Several key findings of the surveys had important impacts on the electoral process: The surveys confirmed the existence of a large proportion of citizens who lacked the correct identity documents to register. The increased public debate after the release of these results was followed by an extension of the registration process as well as the creation of Temporary Registration and an intensified public advertising campaign. The results helped identify the issues that ordinary voters think are most important (ie job creation, crime-reduction, education, housing, the economy and health care). This helped re-orient the way that the media covered the campaign and focussed government and opposition attention on these key issues. The surveys also revealed the existence of quite a sophisticated electorate and who differentiate between a range of dimensions of political performance and who look to real-world events such as the economy, government performance, and how the country is doing to help them make political choices.

Geographic coverage
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The survey has national coverage.

Analysis unit
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Households and individuals

Universe
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The universe for the survey was all adult South Africans who would be of voting age in 1999.

Kind of data
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Sample survey data

Sampling procedure
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The sample was drawn using a multi-stage, area stratified probability sampling methodology. The sample was stratified by province, population group and community size (metro, city, large town, small town, village and rural). The metropolitan areas were also stratified into "Formal" and "Informal" settlements, to ensure good representation. All qualifying members of a household were listed and one respondent selected randomly. Three attempts were made to interview this person, before substitution with another randomly selected household. 14% of originally selected respondents refused to be interviewed. The sample was representative of the universe from which it was selected. Results can, therefore, be projected to the universe (South Africa as a whole).

Mode of data collection
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Face-to-face [f2f]

摘要
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IDASA 意见调查是在1999年选举前进行的一系列民意调查。其旨在尽可能全面地展现自1994年以来南非民众对国家政治、社会和经济发展的看法。此次调查由IDASA、Markinor和南非广播公司（SABC）联合发起，并与南非选举研究所共同协作，以增强结果的公信力，并充分利用最佳的数据收集和分析专长。

调查的若干关键发现对选举过程产生了重要影响：调查证实了存在大量公民因缺乏注册所需的正确身份证明而无法登记。这些结果公布后，公众对此进行了广泛讨论，随后注册流程得到延长，并创立了临时注册制度，同时加大了公共广告宣传力度。这些结果有助于识别普通选民认为最重要的议题（例如，就业创造、犯罪减少、教育、住房、经济和医疗保健），从而帮助媒体重新定位对竞选活动的报道方式，并使政府和反对派关注这些关键议题。调查还揭示了选民群体的复杂性，他们能够区分政治表现的多个维度，并参考现实世界事件，如经济、政府表现以及国家发展状况来帮助他们做出政治选择。

地理覆盖范围
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调查覆盖全国。
分析单元
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家庭和个人

总体
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本次调查的总体包括所有在1999年具有投票年龄的南非成年公民。
数据类型
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样本调查数据
抽样方法
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样本采用多阶段、区域分层概率抽样方法抽取。样本按省份、人口群体和社区规模（都市、城市、大镇、小镇、村庄和农村）进行分层。都市地区也按“正式”和“非正式”定居点进行分层，以确保良好的代表性。所有符合条件的家庭成员均被列出，并随机选择一位受访者。在尝试采访该受访者三次未果后，将替换为另一位随机选择的家庭成员。原选定的14%受访者拒绝接受采访。样本代表了所选总体的代表性。因此，结果可以推广到总体（整个南非）。
数据收集方式
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面对面访谈（f2f）