Different responses of tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and North Atlantic to two distinct SST warming patterns

How future tropical cyclone (TC) activity could change under global warming (GW) is enormously important to society, which has been widely assessed using state-of-the-art climate models. However, these models were predominantly based on projection of an El Niño-like warming pattern. Recent studies suggested that a La Niña-like warming pattern is also possible. Here, we compare the responses of TC track density (TCTD) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA) to the two distinct GW patterns. We find that the La Niña-like warming pattern reduces WNP TCTD except in the South China Sea and along China coast and increases NA TCTD, while the El Niño-like warming pattern generally reduces TCTD in both basins. This is due to different responses of large-scale dynamic/thermodynamic conditions to the distinct zonal sea surface temperature gradients associated with the two warming patterns. These results help better understand potential future change in TC tracks.