Model instances for land use scenarios of the Floridan Aquifer Collaborative Engagement for Sustainability (FACETS) project

This resource contains SWAT-MODFLOW model instances for various land use scenarios for the Santa Fe River of North Central Florida. These land use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders through a participatory modeling process (PMP) within the Floridan Aquifer Collaborative Engagement for Sustainability (FACETS) project. The FACETS project was funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (Award Number: 2017-68007-26319) to promote the economic sustainability of agriculture and silviculture in North Florida and South Georgia while protecting water quantity, quality, and habitat in the Upper Floridan Aquifer and the springs and rivers it feeds (https://floridanwater.research.ufl.edu/) . SWAT-MODFLOW couples the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model (MODFLOW) to produce an integrated surface-groundwater model (https://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-modflow/) . Within SWAT-MODFLOW, SWAT handles most surface and soil processes, MODFLOW handles groundwater processes, and both models interact to simulate stream flows.

The PMP land use scenarios are the following:

1) Current Condition (Scenario 1)
The base model. This model's land uses and management practices are representative of regional production systems. The simulation period is from January 1st, 1980 to December 31st, 2018. The details of this model and its development can be found in, Reaver, N. G. F., D. Lee, R. De Rooij, D. Kaplan, W. Graham (2025). The Floridan Aquifer Collaborative Engagement for Sustainability (FACETS) project SWAT-MODFLOW model of the Santa Fe River, Florida, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.b80dae5c7cc7421b80c40f9ce856dbf5.

2) Restoration Forestry-High (Scenario 2)
A restoration bookend scenario. All agriculture (row crop, pasture, hay) and production forestry lands are converted to low-density longleaf pine savanna.

3) Restoration Forestry-Low (Scenario 3)
A more limited restoration scenario. 50% of non-irrigated agriculture in areas prioritized for spring restoration are converted to low-density longleaf pine savanna.

4) Agricultural Expansion (Scenario 4)
All current forest land suitable for agriculture (i.e., those with soil group A) switches to row crops.

5) Sod-based Rotation (Scenario 5)
A scenario with widespread implementation of rotational grazing (45% of row crops switch to a rotational production system)

6) High Tech Precision Agriculture (Scenario 6)
A scenario representing widespread adoption of advanced best nutrient management practices (e.g., controlled release N fertilizer)

7) Solar Farm Expansion (Scenario 7)
A scenario representing the current maximum possible regional solar farm expansion in the region (maximum solar area is limited by transmission line capacity)

8) Urban Expansion (Scenario 8)
Urban expansion scenario using estimates from FL 2070 Report (https://1000fof.org/florida2070/)

9) Mix-n-Match (Scenario 9)
A scenario implementing land use and management practices changes from Scenario 3, Scenario 6, and Scenario 7.

The details of these nine scenarios can be found in the document "Model_Development_SFRB.pdf" within the "contents" folder of this resource. Additionally, this resource included six Simple Scenarios (i.e., CPMS1, CPMS2, CPMS3, CCPMS1, CCPMS2, and CCPMS3). In these scenarios, all production lands were managed under a single management system level developed by the PMP.