Population recovery probabilities using a 5-stage-structured mathematical model and demographic stochasticity

A 5-stage-structured mathematical model (UDI: R4.x261.232:0001) was used to examine the recovery probabilities of a population after a time-varying environmental disaster. As a test case, stage-specific survival and transition rates, and annual fecundity values for the Gulf of Mexico sperm whales were used to model the lethal (reduction in survival rate) and sub-lethal (reduction in fecundity rates) impacts on population survival given demographic stochasticity. This analysis allows for the examination of the relationship between the DWH oil spill and the probability of population recovery to pre-disaster or biologically relevant levels under two conditions: probability of recovery in 10 years or 20 years post-disaster.