LIS-MAL estimates of hydro-climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa (1971-2100)

Estimates of climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa over the periods 1971-2005, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Seven climate projections using the high concentration scenario (RCP 8.5) were produced with EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (described in the Excel workbook). These were used to run the Lisflood hydrological model at 0.5 degree resolution and estimate hydro-climatic suitability for malaria transmission based on the Mordecai temperature ranges and Lisflood-predicted surface water availability. For each time period and each of the seven GCMs (i.e. 28 rasters) a 0.5 degree raster layer of the ‘number of suitable months for malaria transmission’ over Africa is presented in the form of a Geotiff. An Excel spreadsheet summarises these files in terms of total area in each 1 month category for the Lisflood estimates and the estimated changes in suitability between time periods. The population estimated to live within areas hydro-climatically suitable for malaria transmission is also presented, incorporating both present day estimates and future predictions. These data are broken down by country and summarised in terms of ‘population months’ for each time period.