The demographic history of micro-endemics: Have rare species always been rare?

Extinction has increased as human activities impact ecosystems. Conservation assessments for the IUCN red list are a fundamental tool in aiding the prevention of further extinction, yet, relatively few species have been thoroughly assessed. To increase the efficiency of assessments, novel approaches are needed to highlight threatened species that are currently data deficient. Many Madagascan plant species currently have extremely narrow ranges, but this may not have always been the case. To assess this, we used high-throughput DNA sequencing for 2-5 individuals of each species - reflecting the paucity of samples available for rare species. We estimated effective population size (Ne) for each species and compared this to census population (Nc) sizes when known. In each case, Ne was an order of magnitude larger than Nc – a signature of rapid, recent population decline. We then estimated the demographic history of each species, tracking changes in Ne over time. Five out of ten species disp...