Range Expansion and Increased Richness of Invasive Plants in China by 2100 under Warmer and Wetter Climate Scenarios

Climate change is altering global bio-geographic patterns and threatens ecosystem stability by influencing the dynamics of biological invasions. However, it remains unclear how the distribution, richness, and community turnover of invasive plants in China will respond to future warmer and wetter climates. In this study, we applied species distribution models (MaxEnt) to predict the potential distribution of 321 major invasive plant species in China, based on 167,359 occurrence records, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) from 2041 to 2100. Our results indicate that approximately 52.6% of invasive plant species will expand their distribution ranges (CSH > 0), gaining an average of 37.39% new suitable habitat, leading to an overall increase in regional invasive plant richness. However, about 30%-40% of species face high risks of habitat loss (LSH≥30%), indicating potential extinction risks for many invasive species. Range expansion was primarily driven by the mean diurnal temperature range (MDR), the mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCM), and isothermality (ISO). Species responses varied considerably: annual herbs and woody plants showed the greatest expansion potential, whereas perennial herbs were the most vulnerable. Narrow-ranging species faced higher risks of habitat loss than wide-ranging species. Furthermore, species distribution centroids shifted northwestward. Importantly, grid-scale species turnover rates showed a positive linear relationship with ecological vulnerability. This finding suggests that invasive communities in ecologically sensitive regions are more susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Therefore, regions projected to experience significant increases in species richness (e.g., the hilly regions of Guangdong and Guangxi, and the Northeast Plain) should be integrated into priority monitoring networks. Moreover, differentiated management strategies should be implemented based on species response types. Our findings provide critical insights into how invasive plant distributions and richness respond to climate change, and offer a scientific basis for climate-adaptive management strategies in China.