Replication Data for: Fundamentals Matter: Forecasting the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Previous studies have used preprimary variables (e.g., endorsements, national polls, and fundraising) and momentum variables from the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to predict presidential nomination outcomes. Still, races with no elite favorite and no clear front-runner in polls, such as the 2020 Democratic race, are more difficult to forecast. We replicate and extend two forecasting models from 1980-2016 used by Dowdle et al. (2016) to predict the 2020 results. Our models suggest that Joe Biden may have been a stronger front-runner than expected, but that subsequent models may need to incorporate other early contests such as the South Carolina primary. Overall, our results also argue that the fundamental factors in winning presidential nominations have remained relatively stable.