Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of coupling coordination between urban resilience and land use efficiency in the urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains

Against the backdrop of rapid urban expansion and intertwined ecological and social vulnerabilities in the arid regions of northwestern China, examining the coupling and coordination relationship between urban resilience and land use efficiency in the urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains can offer valuable insights into fostering the coordinated enhancement of regional risk resistance and land resource allocation. The core contribution of this research is the development of a framework to assess urban resilience and land use efficiency in the urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. This framework employs the entropy method, super-efficiency SBM model, coupling coordination degree model, and triple exponential smoothing method to explore the spatio-temporal evolution and predict trends in coupling coordination relationships. The results demonstrate the following: (1) urban resilience levels are generally low but gradually improving, with a spatial transition from “core-point high resilience” to “high resilience across the entire region;” (2) land use efficiency has significantly improved, evolving from “fragmented inefficiency” to “corridor-type efficiency;” (3) the coupling coordination state between the two systems has developed from near-disruption to primary coordination, and the spatial pattern has evolved from a “center-periphery” structure to a double-peak form; and (4) based on urban resilience foundations, land use patterns, and regional governance, targeted recommendations are proposed to foster the coordinated development of urban resilience and land use efficiency.