Odds ratios for the logistic regression model.

Political partisanship might lead educated adults–even the highly numerate–to reason selectively about numbers that are relevant to and support their ideology (“motivated numeracy”). In this pre-registered study, we sought to examine the replicability of motivated numeracy, and investigate whether cognitive support (number lines) that improves the reasoning of children might also improve the reasoning of political partisans. To test this, we asked 1000 adults about their political ideology and asked them to interpret fictional data, in a table or number-line format, about ideology relevant (i.e., the effect of gun control on crime) or irrelevant (i.e., the effect of skin cream on rash) issues. We failed to replicate motivated numeracy when political identity was used but observed motivated numeracy when prior attitude was used. Moreover, data presented on number lines elicited 75 percent greater accuracy than data presented in tables, regardless of whether the information was ideology-relevant, or whether data supported, was neutral to, or contradicted participants’ political outlooks. Findings imply that political partisans require cognitive support to be more objective about policy data.