Prediction model of volumetric fracturing performance of horizontal wells in the Yangdachengzi reservoir

In response to the problems of low production intensity and unsatisfactory fracturing performance observed in the low-permeability Yangdachengzi reservoir of the Daqing Oilfield, this study constructs a three-dimensional geological model that incorporates two-dimensional natural fracture distributions, and simulates the propagation behavior of complex fracture networks under different operational parameters to optimize fracturing parameters, thereby determining an optimal fracturing strategy tailored to the Yangdachengzi Oilfield. The results show that, when considering factors such as effective reservoir thickness and in-situ stress conditions, sand injection intensity plays the most significant role in controlling fracture height, whereas fluid injection intensity mainly influences fracture conductivity. Through comparative analysis of multiple schemes, the optimal hydraulic fracturing operational parameter combination is determined to be a sand injection intensity of 22 m3/m and a fluid injection intensity of 400 m3/m, under which a 5-year recovery factor reaches 5.31%. Regression-based prediction of the optimal scheme yields a recovery factor of 6.1% and an initial daily oil production rate of 12.40 m3/d. The relative influence of fracture characteristics on production performance follows the order: fracture length > fracture conductivity > fracture width > fracture height. The study elucidates the fracture network propagation characteristics of horizontal well volumetric fracturing under the influence of natural fractures. The findings provide a theoretical basis for fracturing design in natural fractured reservoirs and offer significant engineering value for optimizing horizontal well volumetric fracturing technoloies in similar low-permeability oil reservoirs.