The Dynamic Shift Detector: An algorithm to identify changes in parameter values governing populations

Environmental factors interact with internal rules of population regulation, sometimes perturbing systems to alternate dynamics though changes in parameter values. Yet, pinpointing when such changes occur in naturally fluctuating populations is difficult. An algorithmic approach that can identify the timing and magnitude of parameter shifts would facilitate understanding of abrupt ecological transitions with potential to inform conservation and management of species. The “Dynamic Shift Detector” is an algorithm to identify changes in parameter values governing temporal fluctuations in populations with nonlinear dynamics. The algorithm examines population time series data for the presence, location, and magnitude of parameter shifts. It uses an iterative approach to fitting subsets of time series data, then ranks the fit of break point combinations using model selection, assigning a relative weight to each break. We examined the performance of the Dynamic Shift Detector with simulations and two case studies. Under low environmental/sampling noise, the break point sets selected by the Dynamic Shift Detector contained the true simulated breaks with 70–100% accuracy. The weighting tool generally assigned breaks intentionally placed in simulated data (i.e., true breaks) with weights averaging >0.8 and those due to sampling error (i.e., erroneous breaks) with weights averaging