Estimating a physiologically-based threshold to oxygen and temperature from marine monitoring data reveals challenges and opportunities for forecasting distribution shifts

Species distribution modeling is increasingly used to describe and anticipate consequences of a warming ocean. These models often identify statistical associations between distribution and environmental conditions such as temperature and oxygen, but rarely consider the mechanisms by which these environmental variables affect metabolism. Oxygen and temperature jointly govern the balance of oxygen supply to oxygen demand, and theory predicts thresholds below which population densities are diminished. However, parameterizing models with this joint dependence is challenging because of the paucity of experimental work for most species, and the limited applicability of experimental findings in situ. Here we ask whether the joint effects of temperature and oxygen can be reliably inferred from species distribution observations in the field, using the U.S. Pacific Coast as a model system. We developed a statistical model that adapted the metabolic index—a compound metric that incorporates these ..., , , # Estimating a physiologically-based threshold to oxygen and temperature from marine monitoring data reveals challenges and opportunities for forecasting distribution shifts

Dataset for the two case study applications from \"*Estimating a physiologically-based threshold to oxygen and temperature from marine monitoring data reveals challenges and opportunities for forecasting distribution shifts*.\"

`dat_longspine.rds` contains the bottom trawl survey data for longspine thornyhead, and `dat_sablefish.rds` contains the bottom trawl survey data for sablefish. This data is a subset of the NOAA West Coast Bottom Trawl Survey Data: [https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/west-coast/science-data/us-west-coast-groundfish-bottom-trawl-survey](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/west-coast/science-data/us-west-coast-groundfish-bottom-trawl-survey). The full NOAA West Coast  Bottom Trawl data is publicly available from NOAA for other users, and this data file is not intended to be the comprehensive and used fo...