Micro or macroscale? Which one best predicts the establishment of an endemic Atlantic Forest palm?

Historically, macroecology and microecology have diverged with regards to the niche concept. A better understanding of functioning ecological systems, however, depends on an integrative approach to this concept at different spatial scales. A mixed approach, merging macro and microscale by validating Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) with the results of in situ experiments and environmental data collection, was used to understand if areas identified by ENM as highly suitable for adult palms are also adequate for seedling establishment. Syagrus weddelliana’s (Arecaceae) distribution range falls within the Atlantic Rain Forest, and more specifically Serra dos Órgãos region (Rio de Janeiro state), southeastern Brazil. The following steps were performed: (1) ENM to delimit the area of occurrence of S. weddelliana and locate experimental areas; (2) a seed sowing experiment in areas with presence or absence of the species in areas of high or low environmental suitability at 36 experimental stati...