Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of UAV Under Uncertainty

ABSTRACT: Uncertainty-based multidisciplinary design optimization considers probabilistic variables and parameters and provides an approach to account for sources of uncertainty in design optimization. The aim of this study was to apply a decoupling uncertainty-based multidisciplinary design optimization method without any dependence on probability mathematics. Existing approaches of uncertainty-based multidisciplinary design optimization are based on probability mathematics (transformation to standard space), calculating an approximation of the constraint functions in standard space and finding the most probable point, which is the best possible one. The current approach used in this paper was inspired on interval modeling, so it is good when there is insufficient data to develop a good estimate of the probability density function shape or parameters. This approach has been implemented for an existing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV, Global Hawk) designed for purposes of comparison and validation. The advantages of the provided approach are independence of probability mathematics, appropriate when there is insufficient data to approximate the uncertainties variables, appropriate speed to calculate the best reliable response, and proper success rate in the presence of uncertainties.