Calamitous weather, yield risk and mitigation effect of harvest mechanisation: Evidence from China's winter wheat

Stable agricultural production has been substantially challenged by increasingly frequent calamitous weather conditions. For winter wheat, continuous precipitation during the harvest season is particularly detrimental. This study utilises a county-level panel dataset of agricultural production in China for the period of 1998–2016 to evaluate the impact of continuous precipitation on the downside risk of winter wheat yield. Results show that continuous precipitation during the harvest season remarkably increases the downside risk of winter wheat yield. At the same time, the progressive adoption of harvest machinery in recent decades has effectively mitigated the downside risk of winter wheat yield driven by continuous precipitation. The mitigation effects of harvest mechanisation are more pronounced for plain areas with better-developed transportation infrastructure.