Climate change could disrupt migratory patterns for an Arctic seabird population

Climate change is altering the marine environment at a global scale and these changes could affect the distribution and migration patterns of marine species throughout their annual cycle. Arctic regions are already experiencing some of the most dramatic changes in marine climate and there is a need for predictive models to understand how these changes could alter the spatio-temporal distributions of Arctic marine species. We used a species distribution model to predict potential future changes in the non-breeding distribution of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) from a colony in Hudson Bay, Canada, from 2021 to 2100 using three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios: low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP5-8.5) emissions. Under the intermediate and high emissions scenarios, suitable habitat within Hudson Bay would become available year-round during the next century. This could lead to a portion of this migratory population becoming year-r..., We used a previously published species distribution model to predict non-breeding distributions of thick-billed murres under different climate change scenarios (Patterson et al. 2021, Figure 1). The model was developed using geolocator tracks from 91 adult thick-billed murres tracked from a breeding colony on Coats Island, Nunavut (62.95ºN, 82.01ºW), collected over four annual cycles (2007-09, 2017-2019) (Patterson et al. 2021b). Full details on geolocator unit deployment and location estimates are outlined in Patterson et al. (2021). Location estimates were derived from light-level data using the R packages ‘TwGeos’ (Lisovski et al. 2016) and ‘probGLS’ (Merkel et al. 2016). Pseudo-absences representing habitat available to murres were randomly generated for ocean areas within a 200-1000 km envelope from all observed locations within the month of tracking at a 1:1 ratio of pseudo-absences to observations. Environmental conditions at observed locations were compared to environmental cond..., , # Data from: Climate change could disrupt migratory patterns for an Arctic seabird population

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.xgxd254s6](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.xgxd254s6)

## Description of the data and file structure

These netcdf files provide predictions of the probability of use of marine habitat during the non-breeding season for thick-billed murres (*Uria lomvia*) from the breeding colony at Coats Island, Nunavut, Canada. This predictions were derived from a species distribution model (SDM) that is fully described in:  Patterson A, Gilchrist H, Gaston A, Elliott K (2021a) Northwest range shifts and shorter wintering period of an Arctic seabird in response to four decades of changing ocean climate. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 679:163–179. This model included four climatic variables: sea surface temperature, air temperature, sea ice cover, and wind speed. The model described in that paper was then applied to future climate scenarios using environmental data from oceanographic...