Limitations to recovery following wildfire in dry forests of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, USA

Climate warming is contributing to increases in wildfire activity throughout the western U.S., leading to potentially long-lasting shifts in vegetation. The response of forest ecosystems to wildfire is thus a crucial indicator of future vegetation trajectories, and these responses are contingent upon factors such as seed availability, interannual climate variability, average climate (e.g., 30-year normals), and other components of the physical environment. To better understand variation in forest resilience to fire across vulnerable dry forests, we performed field surveys of conifer seedling abundance in 15 recent (1988-2010) wildfires and characterized temporal variation in seed cone production and seedling establishment. We then modeled post-fire seedling abundances for each species at a 30 m resolution using downscaled climate data, monthly water balance models, and canopy cover of surviving mature conifers. Widespread ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seed cone production occurred at...