Circularity of Lithium-Ion Battery Materials in Electric Vehicles

Batteries have the potential to significantly
reduce greenhouse
gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental
and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly
cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently
highlighted as barriers to widespread electric vehicle adoption. Circular
economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and
secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity,
we undertake a dynamic global material flow analysis of pack-level
materials that includes scenario analysis for changing battery cathode
chemistries and electric vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise
and through the year 2040 to estimate the potential global and regional
circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum,
copper, and graphite, although the analysis is focused on the cathode
materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply
60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel
globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves
to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chemistry, there is
potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market
steers away from cathodes containing cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market,
cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity
before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary
materials, recycling and manufacturing infrastructure must be developed
in each region.