Testing migration patterns and estimating founding population size in Polynesia by using human mtDNA sequences

The hypervariable 1 region of human mtDNA shows markedly reduced variability in Polynesians, and this variability decreases from western to eastern Polynesia. Fifty-four sequences from New Zealand Maori show that the mitochondrial variability with just four haplotypes is the lowest of any sizeable human group studied and that the frequency of haplotypes is markedly skewed. The Maori sequences, combined with 268 published sequences from the Pacific, are consistent with a series of founder effects from small populations settling new island groups. The distributions of haplotypes were used to estimate the number of females in founding population of New Zealand Maori. The three-step simulation used a randomly selected founding population from eastern Polynesia, an expansionary phase in New Zealand, and finally the random selection of 54 haplotypes. The results are consistent with a founding population that includes ≈70 women (between 50 and 100), and sensitivity analysis shows that this conclusion is robust to small changes in haplotype frequencies. This size is too large for models postulating a very small founding population of “castaways,” but it is consistent with a general understanding of Maori oral history as well as the results of recent canoe voyages recreating early trans-oceanic voyages.