The Economics of Energy Vulnerability

About the Workshop The workshop was attended by energy security experts from academia, government, multilateral and non-governmental organizations. It was conducted on the basis that the discussions could be reported on a non-attribution basis.About KAPSARC’s Research on Energy Vulnerability KAPSARC’s research on energy vulnerability looks at energy shocks and disruptions from the perspective of both exporting and importing economies. Our objective is to understand what are the macroeconomic fundamentals that increase the resilience of an economy to energy shocks and, in particular, the role of the energy mix in reducing vulnerability. This will lead to an analysis of policies that enhance the resilience of economies to energy shocks.Key PointsThe economic vulnerability of an economy to energy disruptions is traditionally viewed through the lens of price shocks. This 'energy vulnerability' is driven by the energy mix, the infrastructure and the supply chain resilience that an economy enjoys.Globally, the energy mix appears to be determined by the relative costs of fuels. Regionally, the mix may be distorted by policies addressing security, environmental, economic and other social aspects. Such policies may create economic vulnerabilities to the same extent as price shocks. Policies designed to stabilize energy prices rather than to insulate an economy from price volatility may, ironically, lead to greater swings in prices in the long-term. As technology and regulation change the relative competitiveness of energy sources, stabilization mechanisms may create unsustainable imbalances—creating even greater hardship when they unwind

关于研讨会本次研讨会汇聚了来自学术界、政府机构、多边和非政府组织的能源安全专家。研讨会基于讨论内容可以匿名报道的原则进行。关于KAPSARC对能源脆弱性的研究KAPSARC对能源脆弱性的研究，从出口国和进口国的视角对能源冲击和中断进行分析。我们的目标是理解哪些宏观经济基本面能够增强经济体对能源冲击的韧性，特别是能源结构在降低脆弱性方面所扮演的角色。这将引导我们对增强经济体对能源冲击韧性的政策进行分析。重点要点经济体对能源中断的经济脆弱性传统上是通过价格冲击的视角进行审视的。这种‘能源脆弱性’是由能源结构、基础设施和供应链韧性所驱动的。在全球范围内，能源结构似乎由燃料的相对成本决定。在地区层面，能源结构可能因涉及安全、环境、经济及其他社会方面的政策而扭曲。此类政策可能产生的经济脆弱性与价格冲击相当。旨在稳定能源价格而非隔离经济体免受价格波动影响的政策，讽刺地讲，可能在长期内导致价格更大波动。随着技术和监管改变能源来源的相对竞争力，稳定机制可能造成不可持续的不平衡——在它们解除时造成更大的困难。