The genetic architecture of fitness drives population viability during rapid environmental change

The rapid global loss of biodiversity calls for improved predictions of how populations will evolve and respond demographically to ongoing environmental change. The heritability (h2) of selected traits has long been known to affect evolutionary and demographic responses to environmental change. However, effects of the genetic architecture underlying the h2 of a selected trait on population responses to selection are less well understood. We use deterministic models and stochastic simulations to show that the genetic architecture underlying h2 can dramatically affect population viability during environmental change. Polygenic trait architectures (many loci, each with a small phenotypic effect) conferred higher population viability than genetic architectures with the same initial h2 and large-effect loci under a wide range of scenarios. Population viability also depended strongly on the initial frequency of large-effect beneficial alleles, with moderately low initial allele frequencies co...