Stochastic modeling of chimpanzee population growth.

1SIVcpz refers to transmission probabilities of SIVcpz estimated from empirical epidemiological and demographic data in Gombe. The empirically-derived values of τ = 0.000769 and τ = 0.001539 were calculated for values of ρ = 5 and ρ = 10 respectively (see Methods for details). HIV-1 refers to the transmission probability of HIV-1 as estimated by Gray and colleagues [23] for sero-discordant couples in Rakai, Uganda.
2Probability that a migrating female is SIVcpz infected; low and high pF values reflect the range of prevalence rates determined for wild chimpanzee communities [11], [55].
3Percent of chimpanzee populations that survive 100 years of simulation.
4Percent of chimpanzee populations that remain SIVcpz infected after 100 years of simulation.
5Growth rate for chimpanzee populations surviving 100 years of simulation.
6Mean time to extinction for chimpanzee populations that do not survive 100 years of simulation.