Copernicus Marine In Situ TAC - Ocean Monitoring Indicator OMI_EXTREME_SST_NORTHWESTSHELF_sst_mean_and_anomaly_obs

DEFINITION The OMI_EXTREME_SST_NORTHWESTSHELF_sst_mean_and_anomaly_obs indicator is based on the computation of the 99th and the 1st percentiles from in situ data (observations). It is computed for the variable sea surface temperature measured by in situ buoys at depths between 0 and 5 meters. The use of percentiles instead of annual maximum and minimum values, makes this extremes study less affected by individual data measurement errors. The percentiles are temporally averaged, and the spatial evolution is displayed, jointly with the anomaly in the target year. This study of extreme variability was first applied to sea level variable (Pérez Gómez et al 2016) and then extended to other essential variables, sea surface temperature and significant wave height (Pérez Gómez et al 2018).
CONTEXT Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the essential ocean variables affected by climate change (mean SST trends, SST spatial and interannual variability, and extreme events). In Europe, several studies show warming trends in mean SST for the last years (von Schuckmann, 2016; IPCC, 2021, 2022). An exception seems to be the North Atlantic, where, in contrast, anomalous cold conditions have been observed since 2014 (Mulet et al., 2018; Dubois et al. 2018; IPCC 2021, 2022). Extremes may have a stronger direct influence in population dynamics and biodiversity. According to Alexander et al. 2018 the observed warming trend will continue during the 21st Century and this can result in exceptionally large warm extremes. Monitoring the evolution of sea surface temperature extremes is, therefore, crucial. The North-West Self area comprises part of the North Atlantic, where this refreshing trend has been observed, and the North Sea, where a warming trend has been taking place in the last three decades (e.g. Høyer and Karagali, 2016).
COPERNICUS MARINE SERVICE KEY FINDINGS The mean 99th percentiles showed in the area present a range from 14-16ºC in the North of the British Isles, 16-19ºC in the Southwest of the North Sea to 19-21ºC around Denmark (Helgoland Bight, Skagerrak and Kattegat Seas). The standard deviation ranges from 0.5-1ºC in the North of the British Isles, 0.5-2ºC in the Southwest of the North Sea to 1-3ºC in the buoys around Denmark. Results for this year show either positive or negative low anomalies around their corresponding standard deviation in in the North of the British Isles (-0.5/+0.6ºC) and a clear positive anomaly in the other two areas reaching +2ºC even when they are around the standard deviation margin.
References:
- Alexander MA, Scott JD, Friedland KD, Mills KE, Nye JA, Pershing AJ, Thomas AC. 2018. Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans. Elem Sci Anth, 6(1), p.9. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.191.
- Dubois C, von Schuckmann K, Josey S, Ceschin A. 2018. Changes in the North Atlantic. In: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 2, Journal of Operational Oceanography, vol 11, sup1, s66–s70.  https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2018.1489208
- Høyer JL, Karagali I. 2016. Sea surface temperature climate data record for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2529-2541. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0663.1
- IPCC. 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V., Masson-Delmotte, P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S.L., Connors, C., Péan, S., Berger, N., Caud, Y., Chen, L., Goldfarb, M.I., Gomis, M., Huang, K., Leitzell, E., Lonnoy, J.B.R., Matthews, T.K., Maycock, T., Waterfield, O., Yelekçi, R., Yu, B. Zhou (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
- IPCC. 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. H.-O., Pörtner, D.C., Roberts, M., Tignor, E.S., Poloczanska, K., Mintenbeck, A., Alegría, M., Craig, S., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, V., Möller, A., Okem, B., Rama (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
- Mulet S, Nardelli BB, Good S, Pisano A, Greiner E, Monier M, Autret E, Axell L, Boberg F, Ciliberti S, Drévillon M, Droghei R, Embury O, Gourrion J, Høyer J, Juza M, Kennedy J, Lemieux-Dudon B, Peneva E, Reid R, Simoncelli S, Storto A, Tinker J, von Schuckmann K, Wakelin SL. 2018. Ocean temperature and salinity. In: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 2, Journal of Operational Oceanography, vol 11, sup1, s5–s13. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2018.1489208
- Pérez-Gómez B, Álvarez-Fanjul E, She J, Pérez-González I, Manzano F. 2016. Extreme sea level events, Section 4.4, p:300. In: Von Schuckmann K, Le Traon PY, Alvarez-Fanjul E, Axell L, Balmaseda M, Breivik LA, Brewin RJW, Bricaud C, Drevillon M, Drillet Y, Dubois C , Embury O, Etienne H, García-Sotillo M, Garric G, Gasparin F, Gutknecht E, Guinehut S, Hernandez F, Juza M, Karlson B, Korres G, Legeais JF, Levier B, Lien VS, Morrow R, Notarstefano G, Parent L, Pascual A, Pérez-Gómez B, Perruche C, Pinardi N, Pisano A, Poulain PM , Pujol IM, Raj RP, Raudsepp U, Roquet H, Samuelsen A, Sathyendranath S, She J, Simoncelli S, Solidoro C, Tinker J, Tintoré J, Viktorsson L, Ablain M, Almroth-Rosell E, Bonaduce A, Clementi E, Cossarini G, Dagneaux Q, Desportes C, Dye S, Fratianni C, Good S, Greiner E, Gourrion J, Hamon M, Holt J, Hyder P, Kennedy J, Manzano-Muñoz F, Melet A, Meyssignac B, Mulet S, Nardelli BB, O’Dea E, Olason E, Paulmier A, Pérez-González I, Reid R, Racault MF, Raitsos DE, Ramos A, Sykes P, Szekely T, Verbrugge N. 2016. The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Ocean State Report, Journal of Operational Oceanography. 9 (sup2):  235-320. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2016.1273446
- Pérez Gómez B, De Alfonso M, Zacharioudaki A, Pérez González I, Álvarez Fanjul E, Müller M, Marcos M, Manzano F, Korres G, Ravdas M, Tamm S. 2018. Sea level, SST and waves: extremes variability. In: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 2, Journal of Operational Oceanography, 11:sup1, Chap. 3.1, s79–s88, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2018.1489208.
- von Schuckmann K, Le Traon PY, Alvarez-Fanjul E, Axell L, Balmaseda M, Breivik LA, … Verbrugge N. 2016. The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Ocean State Report. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 9(sup2), s235–s320. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2016.1273446.