Gypsy moth trap catches, VA 2000 - 2016

An accurate quantitative relationship between key characteristics of an insect population, such as season-long and peak abundances, can be very useful in pest management programs. To the best of our knowledge, no such relationship has been established. Here we establish a predictive linear relationship between insect catch during the week of peak abundance, the length of seasonal flight period, (number of weeks) and season-long cumulative catch (abundance) . The derivation of the equation is based on several general assumptions, and does not involve fitting to experimental data, which implies generality of the result. A quantitative criterion for the validity of the model is presented. The equation was tested using extensive data collected on captures of male gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) in pheromone-baited traps during 15 years. The model was also tested using trap catch data for two species of mosquitoes, Culex pipiens (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), in Gravid and BG-sentinel mosquito traps, respectively. The simple, parameter-free equation approximates experimental data points with relative error of 13% and R2 = 0.997, across all of the species tested. For gypsy moth, we also related season-long and weekly trap catches to the daily trap catches during peak flight. We describe several usage scenarios, in which the derived relationships are employed to help link results of small-scale field studies to the operational pest management programs.

精确量化昆虫种群关键特征（如全年和峰值丰度）之间的关系，对于害虫管理计划而言极为有益。据我们所知，尚无此类关系的建立。在本研究中，我们建立了昆虫在峰值丰度周内的捕获量、季节性飞行期长度（以周计）以及全年累计捕获量（丰度）之间的预测性线性关系。方程的推导基于若干一般性假设，且未涉及对实验数据的拟合，这暗示了结果的普适性。本文提出了一个用于验证模型有效性的定量标准。该方程通过15年间收集的大量数据对雄性舞毒蛾Lymantria dispar (L.)（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）在信息素诱捕器中的捕获进行测试，该测试涉及两种蚊子物种，即家蚊Culex pipiens (L.)（双翅目：蚊科）和埃及伊蚊Aedes albopictus (Skuse)（双翅目：蚊科），分别在妊娠蚊诱捕器和BG哨兵蚊诱捕器中的捕获数据。该简化的、参数自由的方程以相对误差13%和R2 = 0.997的精度近似了所有测试物种的实验数据点。对于舞毒蛾，我们还探讨了全年和每周的诱捕量与峰值飞行期间的每日诱捕量之间的关系。本文描述了多种使用场景，在这些场景中，所推导出的关系被应用于帮助将小规模田间研究的结果与实际害虫管理计划相联系。