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Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model

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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development2026-04-11 收录
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https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/business-cycle-dynamics-after-the-great-recession_9626dda3-en.html
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The Great Recession and the subsequent period of subdued GDP growth in most advanced economies have highlighted the need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility, and fluctuations in trend GDP growth. In this paper, we put forward an extension of the standard...
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