State of Wildfires 2025-26: Present-Day Attribution and Future Projections of Focal Events Using FWI7X

This dataset supports the State of Wildfires 2025-26 report submitting to Earth System Science Data (Burton et al., under review). The dataset quantifies changes in the likelihood of fire weather extremes (represented by the Canadian Fire Weather Index) associated with the focal events by: (a) assessing how their likelihood has changed relative to past climate conditions; and (b) projecting how this likelihood may evolve under future global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C above the recent baseline climate (2017-2026). The analysis is based on simulations from three CMIP6 Earth System Models with large ensembles: CanESM5 (50 ensemble members), ACCESS-ESM1-5 (30 members), and MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10 members). Files and Descriptions: Probability ratio estimates for extreme fires occurred in Chilean Temperate Forests and Matorral in 2026 using: ACCESS-ESM1-5: gev_fit_scaling_ACCESS-ESM1-5_chilean_temperate_forests_and_matorral_Jan-Feb.RData CanESM5: gev_fit_scaling_CanESM5_chilean_temperate_forests_and_matorral_Jan-Feb.RData MPI-ESM1-2-LR: gev_fit_scaling_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_chilean_temperate_forests_and_matorral_Jan-Feb.RData Probability ratio estimates for extreme fires occurred in Midwestern Canadian Shield Forests in 2025 using: ACCESS-ESM1-5: gev_fit_scaling_ACCESS-ESM1-5_midwestern_canadian_shield_forests_Jul-Aug.RData CanESM5: gev_fit_scaling_CanESM5_midwestern_canadian_shield_forests_Jul-Aug.RData MPI-ESM1-2-LR: gev_fit_scaling_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_midwestern_canadian_shield_forests_Jul-Aug.RData Probability ratio estimates for extreme fires occurred in Northwest Iberia in 2025 using: ACCESS-ESM1-5: gev_fit_scaling_ACCESS-ESM1-5_northwest_iberia_Aug.RData CanESM5: gev_fit_scaling_CanESM5_northwest_iberia_Aug.RData MPI-ESM1-2-LR: gev_fit_scaling_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_northwest_iberia_Aug.RData Analysis Scripts: The probability ratio results for CanESM5, ACCESS-ESM1-5 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR were estimated using the following R script: SoWF26_gev_fit_ACCESS-ESM1-5.R SoWF26_gev_fit_CanESM5.R SoWF26_gev_fit_MPI-ESM1-2-LR.R