Pre-Analysis Plan for "Accountability by Law or by Elites?"

When do mechanisms of democratic accountability succeed in turning public opinion against illiberal politicians? Existing literature on democratic erosion and resilience offers two competing hypotheses. The first contends that formal, legal institutions can safeguard democracy by prosecuting and convicting illiberal politicians. The second, by contrast, argues that informal, elite gatekeeping is essential to stymie illiberal candidates. To understand how different forms of accountability shape public attitudes toward illiberal politicians, we will conduct a survey experiment in Brazil in May 2024 regarding former president Jair Bolsonaro. Survey respondents will be randomly assigned to a placebo condition, a textual treatment about the legal conviction of Bolsonaro, or a textual treatment about elite condemnation of Bolsonaro. We will measure the effect of these different treatment conditions on respondents' attitudes toward Bolsonaro, banning Bolsonaro, rule-of-law institutions, and democratic norms.

在何种条件下，民主问责机制能够成功将公众舆论导向反对非自由主义政治家的方向？现有的关于民主侵蚀与韧性的文献提出了两种相互竞争的假设。第一种观点认为，正式的法律机构可以通过起诉和定罪非自由主义政治家来捍卫民主。相比之下，第二种观点则主张，非正式的精英守门机制对于阻止非自由主义候选人至关重要。为了理解不同形式的问责机制如何塑造公众对非自由主义政治家的态度，我们计划于2024年5月在巴西进行一项调查实验，针对前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗。调查受访者将被随机分配到安慰剂条件组、关于博尔索纳罗法律定罪的文本处理组或关于精英谴责博尔索纳罗的文本处理组。我们将测量这些不同的处理条件对受访者对博尔索纳罗的态度、禁止博尔索纳罗、法治机构和民主规范的影响。