ERAD — European Rearmament Announcements Dataset, v1.0 (2021–2026), with event chronologies and replication code

ERAD (European Rearmament Announcements Dataset) v1.0: 61 dated, source-verified rearmament commitments by European governments, the European Union, and NATO, January 2021 – July 2026 (56 day-precision national and EU-level observations in the estimation sample). Each announcement records country, date and precision, instrument type (GDP target, special fund, budget law, procurement package, development plan, summit pledge), headline amount and unit, target year, headline visibility, verification status, and sources. The package also contains: (i) two hand-built event chronologies — Russian escalation (33 events, 31 day-precision) and American alliance pressure (18 events, 17 day-precision), 2021–2026; (ii) the full codebook and build log documenting every inclusion, exclusion, correction, and flag resolution; (iii) a re-coding audit of a randomly drawn month and a systematic re-coding of February–June 2022; (iv) NATO %GDP outturn extracts (vintage-documented) for the announcement–implementation gap test; (v) complete Python replication code for all results (permutation tests under uniform and calendar-year-stratified nulls, geography and composition tests, gap analysis, figures and tables; seed 42, 10,000 draws). The dataset supports the article "Signaling to Washington or Balancing Moscow? An Event-Study of European Rearmament Commitments, 2021–2026" (under review). Data are released under CC-BY 4.0; code under MIT (see README).