System Dynamics-Based Circular Economy Modeling under Policy Scenarios

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a System Dynamics model (SimuDS-EC) designed to analyze the dynamic and stochastic behavior of material circularity systems under different policy interventions. The research integrates a Monte Carlo stochastic pipeline within a deterministic framework to quantify uncertainty and assess the robustness of circular economy strategies related to collection, efficiency, and product lifetime extension. This work contributes to the literature on sustainable resource management and environmental systems modeling by: (1) Extending traditional system dynamics approaches through probabilistic simulation of circular material flows; (2) Providing a reproducible computational framework implemented in R (SimuDS) that links feedback-driven material modeling with uncertainty quantification; and (3) Offering quantitative insights into how policy mechanisms affect circularity indicators (C(t)), waste reduction (W(t)), and virgin material displacement (D(t)) over time.