Development of a scientific basis for weather prediction

"It was about forty year ago that the present World Meteorologist Organization took shape as a reorganized form of its illustrious predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization. These forty years have coincided with major advances in the technique of weather forecasting, especially the prediction of motions on the synoptic and larger scales. Three developments have supported this advance --- better data and distribution of data, vastly more powerful computing machinery, and an increased theoretical understanding of the atmosphere and the forecasting problem that it presents. Many problems remain, however. In my view the chief limitation for reliable and accurate large scale forecasts beyond one day is inadequate data. An inability to represent moist convection in current forecast models also seems to be a serious problem, especially in warm climates. But I am not sure whether the limitation here arises from inadequate theory, from inadequate data, or whether it is perhaps a problem for which there may never be a satisfactory solution in practical terms"--Page 1, paragraphs 1-2. Norman A. Phillips. "This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members." "May 1987." System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Includes bibliographical references (pages 30-31). 1987 NWS (National Weather Service) NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Library Public Domain 2285