9-second gridded continental Australia change in effective area of similar ecological environments (cleared natural areas) for Mammals 1990:2050 CanESM2 RCP 8.5 (CMIP5) (GDM: MAM_R2)

Proportional change in effective area of similar ecological environments for Mammals as a function of land clearing and change in long term (30 year average) climates between the present (1990 centred) and projected future (2050 centred) under the CanESM2 model (RCP 8.5) based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover.

This metric describes the combined effects of climate change and land clearing on the area of similar environments to each grid cell as a proportion. Each cell is compared with a sample of 60,000 points in both the present uncleared landscape and an alternative scenario (either present with clearing, or future with clearing), and the pairwise similarities summed (e.g. a completely similar cell will contribute 1, a dissimilar cell 0, with a range of values in between). Only cells which are flagged as uncleared contribute. For each time point, this describes the area of similar environments, which will be low for rare environments and high for widely distributed environments. By dividing the test area by the current area, we are able to quantify the reduction in area as a function of land use/climate change. Values less than one indicate a reduction, values of 1 no change, and values greater than 1 (rare cases in the north) show an increase in similar environments.

This metric was developed along with others for use in an assessment of the efficacy of the protected area system for biodiversity under climate change at continental and global scales, presented at the IUCN World Parks Congress 2014. It is described in the AdaptNRM Guide “Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach”, available online at: www.adaptnrm.org.

Data are provided in two forms:
1. Zipped ESRI float grids: Binary float grids (*.flt) with associated ESRI header files (*.hdr) and projection files (*.prj). After extracting from the zip archive, these files can be imported into most GIS software packages, and can be used as other binary file formats by substituting the appropriate header file.
2. ArcGIS layer package (*.lpk): These packages contain can be unpacked by ArcGIS as a raster with associated legend.

Additionally a short methods summary is provided in the file 9sMethodsSummary.pdf for further information.Tom HA

Layers in this 9s series use a consistent naming convention:
BIOLOGICAL GROUP _ FROM BASE_ TO SCENARIO_ ANALYSIS
e.g. A_90_CAN85_S or R_90_MIR85_L
where BIOLOGICAL GROUP is A: Mammals, M: mammals, R: reptiles and V: vascular plants