Exposure to Droughts

Drought is a complex process to model because of the inherent spatial and temporal uncertainty. In general terms, a drought can be understood as a deficiency in precipitation that severely affects a certain region, environment, industry, or people. According to the FAO, droughts are ‘the world’s most destructive natural hazard with devastating impacts on food security and food production. The frequency as well as intensity of droughts has increased in the past 20 years due to climate change and it is expected that this trend will intensify in the future. In INFORM, the impact of drought is measured by a combination of two factors: (i) the risk for drought, calculated as the probability for an agricultural drought (which may or may not result in a drought disaster through reduced food production); and (ii) the population affected by droughts in recent years (materialized risk).