Data and Code for: The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations

The US-China trade war created net export opportunities rather than simply shifting trade across destinations. Many “bystander” countries grew their exports of taxed products into the rest of the world (excluding US and China). Country-specific components of tariff elasticities, rather than specialization patterns, drove large cross-country variation in export growth of tariff-exposed products. The elasticities of exports to US-China tariffs identify whether a country’s exports complement or substitute US or China and its supply curve’s slope. Countries that operate along downward-sloping supplies whose exports substitute (complement) US and China are among the larger (smaller) beneficiaries of the trade war.美中贸易战并未仅引发贸易在各目的地间转移，反而催生了净出口机遇。诸多“旁观者”国家对除美中之外的全球其余地区的征税商品出口实现了增长。关税弹性中的国别特定组成部分，而非专业化分工模式，是造成受关税影响商品的出口增长在各国间出现显著分化的核心驱动因素。出口对美中关税的弹性可用于判断一国出口与美国、中国形成互补还是替代关系，以及该国供给曲线的斜率。供给曲线向下倾斜且其出口与美中形成替代（互补）关系的国家，属于此次贸易战中获益更大（更小）的群体之列。