Ensemble modeling of aquatic plant invasions and economic cost analysis in China under climate change scenarios

Pistia stratiotes, Eichhornia crassipes, Alternanthera philoxeroides, and Cabomba caroliniana are officially recognized as invasive aquatic plants in China. Accurately predicting their invasion dynamics under climate change is crucial for the future safety of aquatic ecosystems. Compared to single prediction models, ensemble models that integrate multiple algorithms provide more accurate forecasts. However, there has been a notable lack of research utilizing ensemble models to collectively predict the invasive regions of these four species in China. To address this gap, we collected and analyzed comprehensive data on species distribution, climate, altitude, population density, and the normalized difference vegetation index to accurately predict the future invasive regions and potential warnings for aquatic systems concerning these species. At the same time, we analyzed the economic losses caused by these four aquatic plants in China.