The sensitivity of seabird populations to density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and anthropogenic mortality

1.The balance between economic growth and wildlife conservation is a priority for many governments. Enhancing realism in assessment of population‐level impacts of anthropogenic mortality can help achieve this balance. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is commonly applied to investigate population vulnerability, but outcomes of PVA are sensitive to formulations of density‐dependence, environmental stochasticity and life‐history. Current practice in marine assessments is to use precautionary models that assume no compensation from density‐dependence or rescue‐effects via “re‐seeding” from other colonies. However, if we could empirically quantify regulatory population processes, the responses of populations to additional anthropogenic mortality may be assessed with more realism in PVA.

2. Using Bayesian state‐space models fitted to population time‐series from three sympatric seabird populations, selected for varied life histories, we inferred the extent to which their dynamics are dri...