Power of Personalized Smoking Cessation: A Quantitative Lifecycle Framework for Policy Evaluation

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Evidence suggests that smokers' responsiveness to cessation medication depends on genotypes. Whether
personalized treatment based on genotypes is cost-effective compared to standard treatments, however,
has been unexplored. We thus construct a lifecycle model with endogenous health evolution and life expectancy and with heterogeneities in genotypes, demographics, and adolescent smoking. We examine the
cost-effectiveness of three intervention policies: (i) a standard policy where all smokers receive counseling
and medication, (ii) a standard policy where some smokers receive counseling and others receive counseling
and medication, and (iii) a personalized policy based on genotypes. The personalized policy proves the most
cost-effective: every dollar of program cost generates about $29 and $40 in value measured over the lifecycle
for smokers treated at age 37 and 52, respectively, about 16-22% higher than the two standard policies.

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